CBI Championship Primer - Saint Louis versus VCU
By: Ray Floriani, Columnist
Photo Credit: Saint Louis University Sports
Information
LYNDHURST, NJ - The CBI championship begins this evening. "Begins" is the key word as the CBI is a best of three series between the finalists Virginia Commonwealth and Saint Louis. The opener is at VCU with games two and three (if necessary) at Saint Louis on Wednesday and Friday.
Both teams had higher aspirations, but entering and winning through the CBI earlier rounds has energized them. Simply put, they are two of about a dozen teams still playing the final week in March.
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The Coaches. Back in middle school if he was bored with the lesson, Shaka Smart would diagram plays and tinker with offenses in his notebook. Even then, Smart knew he wanted to be a basketball coach. After stops at California (PA), Dayton, Akron, Clemson and Florida as an assistant, Smart got an opportunity to lead his own program at VCU last Spring and is doing an excellent job.
Rick Majerus tried to walk on at Marquette. The late Al McGuire ‘suggested’ playing college ball might not be for Rick. So Majerus totally immersed himself in coaching and later became a trusted assistant to McGuire. Majerus later went on to run the show at Marquette and several other schools with resounding success.
Both coaches love to break down tape, make adjustments offensively and defensively and are extremely passionate in what they do and outstanding teachers of the game.
The Background.
Virginia Commonwealth - The Rams of the Colonial Athletic association are 25-9. They were knocked out of the CAA tournament dropping a tough semifinal to eventual CAA Champion Old Dominion. They own impressive non-conference wins over Nevada, Rhode Island and Richmond. En route to the BCI finals, they defeated George Washington, College of Charleston and Boston University.
Saint Louis - The Billikens are 23-11 and exited the A-10 tournament with a quarterfinal loss to Rhode Island. Saint Louis has two non-conference wins that could be of the signature variety in another year but not this one. They defeated Southern Illinois (15-16) and Nebraska (15-18) before A-10 play. A young team (actually the youngest in the nation) that has gotten better since conference play tipped off, the Bills defeated Indiana State, Wisconsin Green Bay and Princeton to advance to the BCI championship round.
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Styles. VCU averages 69 possessions per game (figures taken from conference play only). They have an outstanding efficiency margin (offensive points per possession minus defensive points per possession) of +18. The offensive PPP of 1.14 is largely due to three-point marksmanship. The Rams shot 38% from three in CAA play. Joey Rodriquez, Burgess Bradford, Ed Nixon and Brandon Rozell can and will fill it up from beyond the arc. VCU is also a threat inside with 6-11 junior Larry Sanders a viable low post threat and the team‘s best rebounder. In CBI action, 6-9 Wake Forest transfer Jamie Skeen has stepped up and provided another threat in the paint.
Defensively the Rams allow .96 PPP, a better than average mark on the defensive end. They force the opposition into a 20% turnover rate so they will exert some pressure and force errors. An Achilles heel is defense from downtown. Opponents in the CAA shot 34% from three against the Rams. That mark was ninth of the twelve teams in conference play.
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Saint Louis averages 64 possessions. That is five fewer than VCU but it is significant. The Rams play at a moderate pace while Saint Louis is more ‘walk it up’. The Billikens average is 64 possessions, but they often barely hit the 60 mark and are comfortable with that pace.
The efficiency margin is a little more down to earth number of plus-five. Saint Louis averages .96 PPP on offense while giving up .91 on the defensive end. They have some similarities to VCU in their offensive approach. There is a good inside presence in Willie Reed, who is complimented by three-point threats in Kwamain Mitchell, Cody Ellis and Kyle Cassity. As a team Saint Louis shoots 35% from three point range. Ellis, as noted, can fill it up from long distance but at 6-8 would be needed to help out more inside as well.
The defense is sound as the .91 defensive PPP testifies. The Bills are not really a full court pressure team but do force opponents into a 20% turnover rate. Their deliberate style on offense gets faster opponents out of sync when they get the ball back, which leads to bad decisions and turnovers. They do an excellent job contesting the arc. Saint Louis’ defensive three point field goal percentage is 28%, the second best mark in the Atlantic 10. SLU has also allowed the fewest three-point makes by their opposition in the nation.
What to look for in the Series. If you are a true fan of the strategies and intricacies of the game, this series is yours to savor. To see after game one - and possibly after game two - how both coaches use the off day to prepare and adjust to what they faced in the prior game will be entertaining and interesting. As noted, both Smart and Majerus are devout X and O guys who dissect tape and search for even the most subtle edge. Noting the adjustments or changes each time out adds to what should be a competitive matchup.
VCU has a slight inside edge. Their offensive rebound percentage margin (VCU’s minus the opposition) was a plus-three. Saint Louis was a minus-eight. That, plus the presence of Sanders and a recent factor in Skeen, gives the Rams a slight edge in the paint.
Both teams have a turnover rate under 20% so valuing the ball is a priority and forcing the opposition into turnovers will not be as easy.
The key factor in the series will be the perimeter. Both teams are dangerous beyond the arc, not afraid to let it fly and can knock the shot down. The key is the defending of the three... VCU has struggled in that area, while on the other wide Saint Louis is meeting a club with several good shooters but defends the three very well.
If VCU gets the inside game going and Saint Louis is forced to double down on the post, how well the Billikens react and consistently close out on the perimeter shooters will go a long way in determining the winner of this championship.
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