In the Atlantic 10, it's all about Efficiency...
By: Ray Floriani, Columnist
Photos courtesy of Leon Chuck
LYNDHURST, NJ - Offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on their own can tell us a lot about a team.
For instance, a team may allow 60 points per game which - on the surface - appears the mark of a stout defense. But if that team's average game possession number is 55, suddenly the defense does not look as dominating. Offensive and defensive efficiency numbers provide a good read on effectiveness, regardless of the game pace.
Offensive Efficiency =
the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions
Defensive
Efficiency = the number of points a team allows per 100
possessions
With offensive efficiency (OE) and defensive efficiency (DE)
providing a great foundation, the best metric is the efficiency
margin (EM) -- which is simply the offensive
efficiency subtracted by the defensive efficiency.
Again, a team's OE might be 110 - an outstanding
figure - but if its DE is 120, the result is a
margin of -10. That spells second division in the
league.
The following tables breakdown OE, DE and EM for the
2008-09 and 2009-10 Atlantic 10 seasons. Only A-10 regular
season games are computed (data utilized from
www.statsheet.com). The tables also list the schools
alphabetically to make comparisons of the two seasons easier to
read graphically.
| 2008-09 | Offensive Eff. | Defensive Eff. | Eff. Margin | Conf. Record |
| Charlotte | 99 | 104 | -5 | (5-11) |
| Dayton | 103 | 101 | 2 | (11-5) |
| Duquesne | 109 | 105 | 4 | (9-7) |
| Fordham | 88 | 117 | -29 | (1-15) |
| Geo. Wash. | 103 | 108 | -5 | (4-12) |
| La Salle | 103 | 101 | 2 | (9-7) |
| UMass | 105 | 106 | -1 | (7-9) |
| URI | 108 | 100 | 8 | (11-5) |
| Richmond | 105 | 105 | Even | (9-7) |
| Saint Louis | 101 | 103 | -2 | (8-8) |
| St. Bona. | 97 | 103 | -6 | (6-10) |
| Saint Joes | 103 | 100 | 3 | (9-7) |
| Temple | 107 | 97 | 10 | (11-5) |
| Xavier | 111 | 93 | 18 | (12-4) |
* * *
| 2009-10 | Offensive Eff. | Defensive Def. | Eff. Margin | Conf. Record |
| Charlotte | 102 | 102 | Even | (9-7) |
| Dayton | 98 | 88 | 10 | (8-8) |
| Duquesne | 101 | 106 | -5 | (7-9) |
| Fordham | 87 | 110 | -23 | (0-16) |
| Geo. Wash. | 100 | 101 | -1 | (6-10) |
| La Salle | 99 | 107 | -8 | (4-12) |
| UMass | 100 | 108 | -8 | (5-11) |
| URI | 109 | 103 | 6 | (9-7) |
| Richmond | 106 | 95 | 11 | (13-3) |
| Saint Louis | 97 | 94 | 3 | (11-5) |
| St. Bona. | 100 | 104 | -4 | (7-9) |
| Saint Joes | 95 | 106 | -11 | (5-11) |
| Temple | 107 | 92 | 15 | (14-2) |
| Xavier | 113 | 95 | 18 | (14-2) |
Notes:
No surprise with respect to Fordham's numbers. When a team wins one conference game in two years, its EM will be decidedly on the negative side. The Rams had a poor efficiency on both sides. But there is renewed hope in the Bronx with the hiring of former Hofstra head man, Tom Pecora. A look at Hofstra's numbers from the last two seasons:
| Hofstra's Eff. Numbers | ||||
| Year | Offensive Eff. | Defensive Eff. | Eff. Margin | Conf. Record |
| 2008-09 | 96 | 99 | -3 | (11-7) |
| 2009-10 | 104 | 97 | 7 | (10-8) |
Even in 2008-09 with Pecora’s club registering a negative in EM, the Pride still finished over .500. Chalk that up to defense. In fact, both years studied saw the Pride with respectable DE figures, giving the impression that defense will likely be Pecora's first order of business on Rose Hill.
Dayton was an interesting club to study. In 2009-10, the Flyers had the fourth best EM in the A-10 and finished 8-8. In 2008-09, UD's efficiency margin was +2 but they were 11-5.
Why?
Well, this past season UD was on the short end of seven tight ballgames decided by five or less points.
Numbers-wise, Brian Gregory's club experienced a decline on the offensive end, as Dayton fell five points in OE from 2008-09 to 2009-10. The defensive efficiency figure of 88 was excellent. In fact, it was the best DE posted by any A-10 team in the two seasons studied. But the 98 on the OE end was below par. While a drop of five points in OE may seem pedestrian, when that five point decline places a team under 100 in efficiency (the benchmark), it is significant. If that OE number were above 100, UD probably wins a few of those close seven that were lost. Suddenly, a team is staring 10-6 or 11-5 in the face as opposed to 8-8.
So what happened in the NIT?
Dayton captured the NIT title with a noticeable improvement on the offensive end. The numbers for the Flyers’ five NIT games:
| Offensive Eff. | Defensive Eff. | Eff. Margin |
| 106 | 89 | 17 |
The efficiency margin improved from very good in the regular
season to outstanding in post season (NIT). This was directly
related an improved offensive output. Dayton's defense
was just as effective in the tournament as it had been in the
regular season, but the offense came alive with three games of over
100 OE. Did the Flyers blitzing style prove too
difficult for opponents to gameplan for on short notice?
Did UD simply get hot? Did offensive numbers
spike off activity on the defensive end? Did
UD play to its potential? All of the above?
Whatever the case, the Flyers saved their best for last,
posting a stellar 115 OE against North Carolina at Madison
Square
Garden.
Are you surprised? The two best efficiency margins the past two years were turned in by Xavier and Temple. There’s a reason X plays deep into March and the Owls have cut down the nets the past few seasons in Atlantic City.
What's the recipe for playing in the postseason?
A positive efficiency margin would help - though there are no
guarantees. There were two teams that finished in the
‘black’ for EM during this study and did
not receive a post season an invite.
LaSalle and Saint Joseph’s
both had positive EM figures in 2008-09 but saw their seasons close
at Boardwalk Hall.
This past season, every A-10 team with a positive EM except
one made the NCAA or NIT. The only one who didn’t was
Saint Louis. The Billikens did get an invite to
the CBI, making the most of the experience en route to advancing to
the championship series.
Examining the figures from the past two seasons, two
teams recorded notable improvements.
Richmondwith an EM of +10 and Dayton at +8. Both
can attribute their progress to better defense. The Spiders, A-10
tourney finalists, made their mark thanks to improved
perimeter defense. A breakdown of two point and three point
field goal percentage of the past two years bears this out.
| 2008-09 | 2009-10 | |
| 2pt. FG% Defense | 47% | 34% |
| 3pt. FG% Defense | 45% | 28% |
The team that took the biggest fall from 2008-09 to last season was, not shockingly, Saint Joseph’s. The ‘Hawk will never die’, but this past winter it spent a good amount of time in the infirmary. The Hawks slide was revealed on both ends of the floor, as SJU dropped six points in DE and eight on the offensive end.
How can a team break .500 in conference play? Easy. Stay in the black in overall EM. Examination of these two seasons showed that every team over .500 in conference play recorded a positive number. Two 'exceptions' were Richmond in 2008-09 and Charlotte this past season. Each avoided negative numbers in EM, both finishing at even.
While there are sure to be instances of a team going 9-7 and winding up with a negative EM, such a development would prove the exception, not the rule. Simply put, striving for a positive EM is the main objective.
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