Different roads, Same result - A statistical look at Dayton & Rhode Island in the NIT

By: Ray Floriani, Columnist

LYNDHURST, NJ - Dayton and Rhode Island are headed to New York. By virtue of two big road wins on Wednesday, the Atlantic 10 will have two representatives at ‘the World’s Most Famous Arena’ for the NIT ‘Final Four’.

Let's take a statistical look at how the Flyers and Rams punched their tickets to the Big Apple. Included is a breakdown of average possessions, points per possession and the 'Four Factors' of Dayton and Rhode Island, as well as their opposition.

THE FOUR FACTORS... EXPLAINED

Effective field goal percentage (eFG): This statistic not only measures field goal percentage , it rewards proficient three point shooting. It is calculated in a similar manner to field goal percentage with the exception that treys are given more weight as noted...

eFG = (FGM + (.5 * 3 pt FGM))/ FGA

The eFG gives a better indication of overall field goal marksmanship. After all, a four of 10 shooter beyond the arc is shooting only 40%. But they are scoring the same as a 60% (6 of 10) shooter in the paint.

Turnover Rate: This figure represents the percentage of possessions ending in a turnover. Simply, it is turnovers divided by possessions. A 20% rate is the cutoff. Twenty percent or greater is over the limit for a team. Under 20% shows judicious care of the basketball.

Offensive Rebound Rate: This is a metric displaying rebounding and inside prowess. Offensive rebounds not only extend possessions. They often provide second chances to score close to the rim and can get the opposition in foul trouble. To calculate...

OR PCT = OFF REB / OFF REB + OPP DEF REB

Free Throw Production: The free throw production is simply calculated by dividing free throws made by field goals attempted. There is another measure, commonly termed ‘free throw rate', that divides free throws attemptedby field goals attempted. The idea is to see if a team is perimeter (less trips to the line) or inside (more FT attempts) oriented.

The production is a better measure. It is not enough to get to the line, you have to make the charity tosses to be effective. Legendary coach Pete Carill often says "the free throw line is the one place a player should be selfish." Getting to the line for 15 free throw attempts is great. Hitting four of those is not. That is why a metric with free throws made is a better indication of a team's production from the line.

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It starts with defense. No surprise... and any observer even remotely familiar with the game would agree. But there are different ways to impose your defensive will.

For Dayton, it's by holding their opposition to a .83 points per possession - in a veritable three game lockdown mode. So the Illini scored 71 in a game that tightened up down the stretch. Still, Illinois could only produce a .91 offensive points per possession figure against the Flyers. Again, outstanding defense.

The 'Four Factors' show Dayton did not turn the opponents over much (a 17% turnover rate is very good for an offense). They did assert their will on the boards and via plain-and-simple stop your man from scoring (or generating a good look) defense. Opponents managed a paltry 40% effective field goal percentage and were only 22% (17 of 77) from beyond the arc. Prospects inside weren’t much brighter, as UD opponents combined for a 44% mark from two point range.

Rhode Island gave up more points per possession, 1.00 is a borderline defensive mark, but got the job done forcing turnovers and keeping the effective field goal percentage under 50%. The Rams did allow opponents to shoot 44% (15 of 34) beyond the arc. That figure is too high, but Rhody was able to offset that figure by limiting foes to a 43% shooting percentage inside the arc. A significant asset to their defensive effort.

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	Average Possessions	Points Per Possession
Dayton	70	1.05
Opponents	73	.83

	EFG	FT RATE	OREB PCT	TO RATE
Dayton	56	25	31	22
Opponents	40	25	25	17

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In examining Dayton's numbers, the turnover rate is a bit surprising given the senior guard leadership of Dayton. London Warren had two, four turnover games which didn’t help. It should be noted that of Dayton’s 46 turnovers in three games, 16 were committed by Warren or fellow senior guard Rob Lowery. The Flyers’ wings and big men had more than their fair share of the total.

Given the almost frantic pace Dayton plays, the Flyers averaged 'only' 70 possessions for the three games. That average is fast, but the Flyers really accelerate. It works. Effective field goal percentage shows they are getting the shot they want and making it. By itself OREB percentage can be a tricky stat (if you shoot 75% how many offensive boards can you get?). But when comparing a team's figure to its opponent, it can determine who is rebounding and hustling better. A lot of offensive rebounding is rooted in sheer hustle.

As Brian Gregory’s club takes the floor at MSG, a priority will be limiting turnovers. Losing over one-fifth of your possessions to turnovers can come back to haunt you, especially in facing an Ole Miss team that was first in the SEC in assist/turnover ratio and third in turnover margin.

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	Average Possessions	Points Per Possession
Rhode Island	72	1.12
Opponents	73	1.00

	EFG	FT RATE	OREB PCT	TO RATE
Rhode Island	50	53	25	10
Opponents	48	33	35	20

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Rhode Island’s offense was more effective in comparison to Dayton’s, but the Ram defense trailed their fellow A-10 brethren. Opponents posed rebounding problems for Jim Baron’s club. On the other hand, URI forced turnovers and caused problems for opponents with 94 feet of defensive pressure.

Offensively, URI showed the ability to play at a fast pace and take extreme care of the ball on the offensive end; a huge factor in advancing. It is one thing to walk the ball up and care for the ball. To play a transition game and not turn the ball over is very advantageous; a credit to Marquis Jones and Stevie Mejia, Rhode Island's two-headed monster at point guard.

The 10% turnover rate for the boys from Kingston is literally off the charts. In the second round win over Nevada, the Rams committed two, yes two turnovers, for a 3% turnover rate.

Another big factor for the Rams is the ability to get to the line. Rhody attempted 93 free throws in the three NIT games. They hit 65 (70%) and earned an outstanding free throw rate. One reason for the frequent trips to the line was the three close games. In all three games the Rams held a lead in the waning moments and opponents were in a fouling mode. Another reason, and a more significant one, is the fact there are penetrators and slashers who can get to the basket and draw fouls. Delroy James, Lamonte Ulmer and Keith Cothran are a trio that can all get to the line consistently.

The most critical area for the Rams in New York will be rebounding. Rhody was outrebounded each of the three NIT games to date, and semifinal opponent North Carolina has a few players capable of hitting the glass. On the other hand, pressure defense and already having managed two close wins with excellent caretaking of the ball bodes well for Jim Baron’s group.

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