October 17, 2011

A-10 Conference Breakdown: Somethin's Brewin' in Olean

Ian Nolan, Contributor (A10)

Tip Off: A year ago, three league heavyweights lived up to their respective hype and expectations as Xavier, Temple and Richmond advanced to the NCAA Tournament despite heavy pressure to deliver. Richmond (A10 Tournament Champion) took the nation by storm advancing to the Sweet Sixteen on the backs of senior point guard Kevin Anderson and classmate and NBA draft pick Justin Harper before falling to No. 2 Kansas. Temple, which finished ahead of Richmond during league play with 14 wins downed in state rival Penn State before falling to No. 1 seed San Diego State in double-overtime. Xavier (league regular season champion) uncharacteristically dropped an eleven point defeat at the hands of Marquette in the opening round; a contest that many believed the Musketeers would win handily. 

Richmond, Temple and Xavier won a combined 79 games and posted a 40-4 mark on their home floors a year ago; dominating the league from wire-to-wire and always holding serve on in their backyards. With talented and experienced players such as Lavoy Allen, Kevin Anderson, Justin Harper, Jamel McLean and Dan Geriot, the three clubs ran roughshod over the league.

No doubt, this year will look similar at the top of the table, at least for two of those three squads in Xavier and Temple.  Each should be reloaded and primed for another run into the field of 68, while the rest of the league will look to close that gap and find their way behind the two flagship teams.

Many questions surround each team, including those with high expectations. 

Will Tu Holloway be able to lead a Xavier team back to the Elite Eight? Does Juan Fernandez have what it takes to guide the Owls to one more title down on Boardwalk Hall; a place they have won three of the last four Conference Tournaments? Could Andrew Nicholson and St. Bonaventure become a household name in college basketball (for the right reasons) and make a run at an NCAA berth for the first time in a decade? How about George Washington; could the Colonials improve on their surprise fifth place finish from a year ago with a healthy Lasan Kromah and the dynamic Tony Taylor returning? What impact will new head coaches Mike Longergan (GW) and Archie Miller (Dayton) have on their clubs? How will Saint Joseph's respond to inflated expectations after their semifinal finish in Atlantic City despite nearly missing the tournament altogether?

Over the course of the next five months, all of these questions will be answered and even more posed. Now, let's fast forward and get into the nitty-gritty, my predicted order of finish as well and thoughts on the league's coaches and media's predicted standings for this season.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Xavier- Big Storyline: Can Monmouth transfer Travis Taylor (F) adjust from the NEC to the A10 and can the talented Justin Martin (F) shake off the rust after each sat out last season to provide production for Chris Mack and give Naismith candidate Tu Holloway (left, courtesy Bob Stevens) even more weapons at his disposal?

A10 Coaches and Media said: First place. Xavier is the surefire bet to win the league again this year and should be a top 25 team all season long. This was an easy pick given the talent returning as well as that arriving in Cincy.

2. Temple- Big Storyline: Can forward Micheal Eric return from injury and become a reliable low post scoring threat (filling the void left by Lavoy Allen), helping the Owls guards to use space on the wings; Eric averaged 7.1 points a year ago.  

A10 Coaches and Media said: Second place. Temple is without question the second best team in the league entering the season. Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore are a great backcourt.

3. George Washington- Big Storyline: Can guard Tony Taylor, one of the league’s most underappreciated players, lead a squad with a new head coach which returning four starters off last year’s 10-6 (A10 record) team to a top three finish?

A10 Coaches and Media said: Eigth place. Wrong. GW won 17 games last year and didn't have guard/forward Lasan Kromah who made the All Rookie team two years ago and averaged 11.8 points. Maybe the Colonials lost favor because of a coaching change, but GW returns four starters on a team that won 17 games and adds a quality forward back into the fold; eighth doesn't add up to me.

 4. St. Bonaventure- Big Storyline: Will Andrew Nicholson be able to deliver an NCAA berth while shouldering the burden of a thin St. Bonaventure roster and the high expectations of a fan base starved of real postseason play (NIT, NCAA) for nearly a decade?

A10 Coaches and Media said: Fourth place. Again, agree with the league on the Bonnies being a top five team in the league. If they stay healthy and new point guard Charlon Kloof is serviceable, Andrew Nicholson will have this team in the mix for the NCAA tournament.

 5. St. Louis- Big Storyline: Is Kwamain Mitchell enough to provide the Billikens with the scoring punch desperately needed to complement a typically sound defense?

A10 Coaches and Media said: Third place. I don't have much issue with the third place predicted finish for the Billikens. All five starters return, and the league's coaches and media assume that Kwamain Mitchell makes them a significantly better team, which he does. My concern with SLU, as it is every year, is can it generate enough offense to win? I like Saint Louis, but not to finish third.

6. Richmond- Big Storyline: Will coach Chris Mooney be able to plug in Cedric Lindsay, Darien Brothers and Francis-Cedric Martel and to replace lost production of last year’s Sweet Sixteen squad?

A10 Coaches and Media said: Fifth place. Nearly on the same page with Richmond here, as the league had the Spiders just one spot higher. This is a product of people having a lot of faith in Chris Mooney; and deservedly so. Mooney will reload this team and have them in the top half of the league despite all their losses; he will be a coach of the year finalist.

 7. Saint Joseph’s- Big Storyline: Which Saint Joseph’s team will emerge this year led by point guard Carl Jones and versatile forward C.J. Aiken? The one that went 4-12 inside the league a year ago or the one that nearly made it to the conference finals down in Atlantic City?

A10 Coaches and Media said: Seventh place. I love Carl Jones and C.J. Aiken will be a stud with some added muscle. Joe's reached the semi-finals last year but won't this time around; seventh place is perfect, as is a second round exit in A.C.

8. Dayton- Big Storyline: How will these three major voids be filled in Dayton: Chris Wright has graduated, point guard Juwan Staten departed via transfer (West Virginia) and longtime head coach Brian Gregory split for Georgia Tech.

A10 Coaches and Media said: Sixth place. Dayton always has the huge homecourt advantage factor, but personnel losses coupled with the coaching transition is challenging -- though Kevin Dillard's arrival will help. Even so, Dayton will struggle down low this year and a sixth place finish would be slightly higher than I'd predict.

9. Rhode Island- Big Storyline: How long does it take for Baron’s impressive collection of newcomers to gel in Kingston? Son Billy Baron (Virginia) along with Andre Malone (Auburn) become eligible at the midyear (December 23rd) and the Rams welcome a top recruit in forward Jonathan Holton (Miami, FL).

A10 Coaches and Media said: 10th. The Rams lost a ton from last year including Delroy James, an offensive threat and high energy defensive player. Baron brings in one of the best recruiting classes in recent history at URI, so expect improvements from this team come January and Feburary.

10. UMass- Big Storyline: Will this finally be the year that Derek Kellogg escapes mediocrity (he’s 39-53 in Amherst) behind Javorn Farrell, Freddie Riley, Terrell Vinson, Sean Carter, and newcomer in Hofstra transfer Chaz Williams at the point?

A10 Coaches and Media said: 12th place. Despite recent struggles and the loss of Anthony Gurley, expect the Minutemen to finish higher than 12th, though not all that much higher. I'm not sold on Derek Kellogg yet and will take a wait-and-see approach to this year's team despite three returning starters. This is clearly a critical year for both Kellogg and the UMass program.

11. Duquesne- Big Storyline: Can Ron Everhart compete with the top of the league once again (fourth last season) while coping with the loss of do-it-all forward Damian Saunders and scoring guard/forward Billy Clark?

A10 Coaches and Media said: Ninth place. I don't see a ninth place finish from this year's Duquesne team but hey, Ron Everhart has done this trick many times before. They've lost Saunders and Clark and although they never have much production down low, I'd be really concerned this year. T.J. McConnell is a star in the making, but this year the Dukes take a slide back.

 12. Charlotte- Big Storyline: Will the 49ers, armed with four returning starters and a highly ranked recruiting class be able to turn the tide in Charlotte after Alan Major’s team won just 10 games a year ago and failed to make the conference tournament?

A10 Coaches and Media said: 11th place. Charlotte simply doesn't have the horses to compete with the top of the league night in and night out. Derrio Green and Chris Braswell aside, the supporting cast doesn't give me a ton of confidence for this group to finish much higher than 12th.

 13. Fordham- Big Storyline: Fordham also returns four starters including forward Chris Gaston (15.9 ppg) and adds a quality recruiting class. Is this seven win team from a year ago ready to take the next step now, or are they a year away from climbing out of the basement?

A10 Coaches and Media said: 14th place. I'm moving Fordham out of last place. Gaston can obviously score and I like the last two recruiting classes.  Rose Hill Gym should become a very tough place to play very soon. Tom Pecora is a quality head coach... so be patient Fordham fans, your time will come much like St. Bonaventure's.

 14. La Salle- Big Storyline: Will the transfer of talented forward Aaric Murray (West Virginia) become a case of addition by subtraction for head coach Dr. John Giannini who returns just two starters from last year’s team?

A10 Coaches and Media said: 13th place. Well, close here, but I'm taking the Explorers to finish last given the loss of Murray who despite his inconsistency was a good player. Jerrell Wright, a Philadelphia native is a highly touted recruit but he, Tyreek Duren and Earl Pettis aren't enough.

Breaking down the League's All Conference Selections:

G -Tony Taylor, George Washington- I was pleasantly surprised to see the GW point guard tabbed for the first team. Taylor is a terrific player and often doesn't get the respect he deserves. He averaged 15 points and 4.6 assists a year ago while leading GW to a fifth place finish. Taylor will be assigned with the task of ushering in a new offense for new head coach Mike Lonergan, but GW fans will rest easy knowing they have TT at the point.

G - Tu Holloway, Xavier- Holloway is not only a no-brainer for first team All Conference but also the favorite to repeat as Most Outstanding Player. The Naismith Award candidate averaged 19.7 points, 5.5 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game last year while getting to the foul line a ridiculous 270 times. Holloway is the premier playmaker and scoring guard in the conference by a wide margin, all due respect to Taylor and Fernandez. He will face tremendous pressure this season as the expectations are higher than usual at Xavier; a trip to the Sweet Sixteen should be the goal... and then anything is possible come the second weekend in March.

G - Juan Fernandez, Temple- Fernandez makes the All Conference team more out of respect to Temple and his body of work than as a springboard from last year. Fernandez averaged 11.2 points in 2010-11, down a point from his sophomore year.  He also saw a major dip in his field goal percentage (45% from three to 33%, 42% to 35% from the field overall). I wouldn't have given Fernandez the nod here, but I can understand that Temple needed to be represented on the team because they were picked to finish second. Which leads us to...

G - Ramone Moore, Temple- Moore deserves to be on this list as the silky smooth scorer is an entertaining watch. Expected to break out last year, Moore did just that, upping his scoring from 7.6 to 15.2 points per game. Moore is the latest in a long line of guards to flourish under Fran Dunphy and belongs on this team more so than his backcourt mate in my eyes.

F - Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure- Nicholson is St. Bonaventure's best player since Bob Lanier took the Bonnies to the Final Four back in 1970 and his spot on this team was never in doubt. Nicholson is one of the elite scoring big men in the country (20.8 ppg last year) and the physics major does it with incredible efficiency; Nicholson is a career 58% shooter from the floor. The development of his range and ball handling skills make Nicholson a match-up nightmare for any defense. The league's highest NBA draft pick come June, Nicholson will battle Holloway all season for Player of the Year honors.

The Case for the Rest of the Best:

G - Kwamain Mitchell, Saint Louis- Mitchell returns to the Billikens after missing last year due to off the court reasons, but should regain his place among the league's star point guards in a hurry. Mitchell can score in bunches, and since Saint Louis lacks a scoring punch to say the least his presence will be great lift for Billikens.

G - Carl Jones, Saint Joseph's- Jones averaged 17 points a game as a sophomore and more importantly led the Hawks to a semifinal birth in Atlantic City.  A scoring guard who changes direction in the blink of an eye, Jones has improved every year under Martelli. Of all those left of the first team list, Jones has as good a case as any.

C - Kenny Frease, Xavier- Frease has transformed himself from a potential recruiting bust to a borderline first team All Conference player. Frease uses his wide-bodied seven foot frame to set terrific screens for the Xavier guards and his scoring and rebounding have become more than sufficient (11.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg). UPDATE: Expect Frease to continue his development during his senior year, provided the suspension levied upon him last Friday is lifted.

F - Chris Johnson, Dayton- Johnson returns to Dayton as the Flyers best all-around player; and to be honest he was that last year too (Chris Wright was overrated, particularly on the offensive end). Johnson will be shouldered with carrying a scoring and rebounding load for a Flyers team that lacks an inside punch this season.

F - Chris Gaston, Fordham- Gaston has become a true stat sheet stuffer during his first two years in the Bronx. The junior averaged 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds last year, even cutting down on his turnovers from 126 to 97. Gaston will become a first team all league performer, but he is a year away.

Coach of the Year:

Mark Schmidt, St. Bonaventure- Schmidt (courtesy SBU Athletics) should win this award not only because I expect the Bonnies to have a big season, but because of the work he has done to position his program for success. When Schmidt took over five years ago everyone said he couldn't win in Olean. He has.

Most Outstanding Player:

Tu Holloway, Xavier- I'm going with Holloway over Nicholson because his team is going to win the league and be a major force in the NCAA tournament. Holloway is one of the best guards in the country and will earn this award through another terrific season.

Post Season Season Predictions:

NCAA- Xavier and Temple

All Other Tournaments-  St. Bonaventure, George Washington, Saint Louis, Richmond, Saint Joseph's, and Dayton.

Let me know what you think! Send me a message on twitter @ianrnolan

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